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The 'Crude Oil: Hot Summer Increase' is the seasonal rise in crude oil, starting on July 24 and ending on September 18. The increase was observed in 17 of 24 years, resulting in an average profit of +12.6%. But there were also 7 years, where the price of crude oil fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -5.4%. The overall rise during all 24 years was +7.1% p.a.. The 'Crude Oil: Hot Summer Increase' lasts 56 calendar days. It took place in 71% of all years. Thus the statistical stability of this seasonal pattern is acceptable. It is necessary to take steps to minimize losses (e.g. through stopp loss). Early accumulation of inventories causes the 'Crude Oil: Hot Summer Increase'. The following table shows all 'Crude Oil: Hot Summer Increases' since 1985: 1985-0724 28.00 1985-0918 28.10 0.10 0.36 % 1986-0724 10.85 1986-0918 14.55 3.70 34.10 % 1987-0724 20.55 1987-0918 19.55 -1.00 -4.87 % 1988-0725 16.05 1988-0919 14.75 -1.30 -8.10 % 1989-0724 18.75 1989-0918 19.90 1.15 6.13 % 1990-0724 20.55 1990-0918 33.40 12.85 62.53 % 1991-0724 21.50 1991-0918 21.85 0.35 1.63 % 1992-0724 22.00 1992-0918 21.95 -0.05 -0.23 % 1993-0726 18.10 1993-0920 17.71 -0.39 -2.15 % 1994-0725 19.37 1994-0919 17.17 -2.20 -11.36 % 1995-0724 16.87 1995-0918 18.91 2.04 12.09 % 1996-0724 20.67 1996-0918 23.88 3.21 15.53 % 1997-0724 19.76 1997-0918 19.51 -0.25 -1.27 % 1998-0724 13.83 1998-0918 15.48 1.65 11.93 % 1999-0726 20.62 1999-0920 24.65 4.03 19.54 % 2000-0724 27.97 2000-0918 36.75 8.78 31.39 % 2001-0724 26.18 2001-0918 27.81 1.63 6.23 % 2002-0724 26.78 2002-0918 29.57 2.79 10.42 %Notice: Our Hot Tips are no trading recommandations. In fact, they are a real time test of seasonal patterns. Trading with seasonality requires additional means to reduce losses, for example diversifaction, the implemetantion of further indicators, or stop losses. Yoy can find an introduction into seasonal trading under trading strategies. Please take also notice of the results of our previous tips and of our disclaimer. |