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The 'Golden Christmas Rally' is the seasonal rise in gold, starting on November 17 and ending on January 21 of the following year. The increase was observed in 17 of 31 years, resulting in an average profit of +13.13%. But there were also 14 years, where the price of gold fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -4.65%. The overall rise during all 31 years was +4.72% p.a.. The 'Golden Christmas Rally' lasts 65 calendar days. It took place in only 55% of all years. Thus this seasonal pattern is (nearly) as often profitable as it is lossy, but it has a good profit/loss-ratio. It is necessary to take steps to minimize losses (e.g. through stopp loss). The following table shows all 'Gold: Second Half Increases' since 1985: 19851118 323.50 19860121 356.50 33.00 10.20 % 19861117 392.50 19870121 407.20 14.70 3.75 % 19871117 464.60 19880121 477.20 12.60 2.71 % 19881117 422.00 19890123 407.45 -14.55 -3.45 % 19891117 392.00 19900122 406.00 14.00 3.57 % 19901119 377.80 19910121 378.20 0.40 0.11 % 19911118 360.75 19920121 357.80 -2.95 -0.82 % 19921117 334.30 19930121 329.75 -4.55 -1.36 % 19931117 371.80 19940121 386.00 14.20 3.82 % 19941117 386.75 19950123 382.35 -4.40 -1.14 % 19951117 386.35 19960122 402.20 15.85 4.10 % 19961118 379.10 19970121 354.70 -24.40 -6.44 % 19971117 303.75 19980121 291.00 -12.75 -4.20 % 19981117 293.80 19990121 287.75 -6.05 -2.06 % 19991117 293.65 20000121 287.75 -5.90 -2.01 % 20001117 265.25 20010122 266.15 0.90 0.34 % 20011119 273.60 20020121 282.30 8.70 3.18 % 20021118 318.75 20030121 353.80 35.05 11.00 % 20031117 393.70 20040121 407.60 13.90 3.53 %Notice: Our Hot Tips are no trading recommandations. In fact, they are a real time test of seasonal patterns. Trading with seasonality requires additional means to reduce losses, for example diversifaction, the implemetantion of further indicators, or stop losses. Yoy can find an introduction into seasonal trading under trading strategies. Please take also notice of the results of our previous tips and of our disclaimer. |